The Game: 2007 Edition

Historical contribution below...

THE GAME: Michigan and Ohio State

The Setting: Ann Arbor, MI at the Big House

Michigan has not decisively beaten OSU on the road since 1976, but a fair amount of thrashings have occurred on friendly soil, most recently in 1991. EDGE, UM, though not as much as OSU at home.

Momentum: Michigan, after six straight wins, played lethargically in Madison and got thumped 21-37 whereas Ohio State, after ten straight wins, allowed Juice Williams to escape with zero turnovers, and saw the end of the quest to be present at LSU's coronation. The Maize and Blue had nothing to play for, save an unusual 8-0 conference record, yet OSU had EVERYTHING to play for and came up seven points shy. EDGE, UM

Helmet Game: Facts are facts, no one on Michigan's sideline has contributed to a win over OSU, and a lot of Buckeyes remain from the past few years, though, as noted below, the chief UM tormentor has left the college game. The Wolverines used to dominate this facet of the game, but since their 2000 peak, the Tressel-led Bucks have become mentally-tough, twice rallying from fourth quarter deficits, including two years ago. Does Michigan believe it can beat this team? EDGE, OSU

The Best Player on the Field... wears a Michigan uniform, those in know call him H20. Nevertheless, Mike Hart will not be remembered much fonder than Dennis Franklin if the senior tailback doesn't go Chris Perry '03 on the Bucks. Is he healthy? If so, a major, major edge to the Victors. If he can't play, Mario Manningham is the next best player, and looking ahead to April, perhaps poised for a furious finish. He was a bit quiet last year, Malcolm Jenkins will have his hands full. Never underestimate the importance of this category. EDGE, UM

Coaching: Lloyd Carr is 1-1 against Coach Tressel in ten-plus point margins, yet a tough 0-4 in the close ones. Probability says Tress's luck can't continue for too long in this category, not to say he can't keep beating the Maize and Blue, but sooner or later, Michigan will get a close one. Plus 5-1 with margins of +5, +4, -14, +16, +5, and +3 don't augur well for this Saturday. EDGE, UM, Lloyd's due.

Special Teams: Both fanbases have whined about the inefficiency of their return games as neither boast a scary-good menace waiting at the goaline. I think OSU has a slight edge on punt yardage, though A. J. Trepasso didn't perform that well last week. Placekicker? Ryan P has looked good, but has he made a clutch kick? Slight edge to Michigan. History says a big play will occur in this phase of the game, but I'm seeing more of a very slight, yardage-wise, edge to Michigan. EDGE, UM

Michigan's Run Offense v. Ohio State's Run Defense: The Illinois disaster behind them, this once-heralded crew trudges to Ann Arbor with memories of Hart running unmolested in 2006. Buckeye D lines have crumbled in the past (1995 ring a "B"ell?) and even if Hart is left on the sidelines for a majority of play, Carlos Brown has shown some ability the last few weeks, plus there's always All America Jake Long. The last time these two teams met here, UM couldn't run. No way that happens again, EDGE, UM

Michigan's Pass Offense v. Ohio State's Pass Defense: Chad Henne or Ryan Mallet? Both have rocket arms that can lead Mannigham and Arrington to huge days (and never forget their TEs!) but each will make mistakes. Yeah, so did Juice Williams. Sigh. I think the secondary, torched last year, should play better, but if Jenkins needs help on #86, more TDs for Arrington and Butler. UM has not turned the ball over in this series since 2004, while they do protect the ball very well, that has to end soon? Yeah, maybe next year. EDGE, PUSH

Ohio State's Run Offense v. Michigan's Run Defense: Make no mistake the 180-plus yards on the ground against the best rush defense since 1959 (last year in Columbus) probably won't happen again. On the other hand, Chris Wells, if healthy, can control this football game. His injuries last week forced Todd Boeckman to throw more too. Can Alex Boone and Kirk Barton recover from a terrible Illinois game? There is no Woodley or Branch, so OSU should be able to run the ball, provided Beanie can hold onto it and they don't find themselves in a double-digit 1H deficit. Wells showed his tremendous talent with a run for the ages last season in this game. Hybrid Crable, though, must be blocked, or the totals will not reach the needed 100 to win the game. EDGE, OSU

Ohio State's Pass Offense v. Michigan's Pass Defense: Cue the Oregon game, or the Illinois game for Boeckman. Can he recover, mentally, from his ignoble second and third quarters that led the Illini to build a lead? UM's secondary has improved since Dennis Dixon blew town, but this isn't a dissimilar crew from the one sliced-and-diced by Smith last year. Yes, it was Smith, and yes, Johnny Sears was still a Wolverine, but so was All America Leon Hall. Boeckman, if anything, should find more time than the Heisman man, but his overthrows are a cause for concern and none of his wide receivers have played in THE GAME as #1 and #2 threats. Did they learn from Holmes, Ginn, and Gonzo? Not enough, despite their talents. EDGE, PUSH

Rapid-fire questions!

Can OSU win with fewer rushing yards? Yes, but not by much.
Does Boeckman have to avoid ANY mistakes? One would be a net win.
If Mike Hart goes for 80 on the first play? Tress will keep them composed.
If Beanie can't go? Mo Wells, one-carry Ann Arbor man, will need to run outside.

Completely laughable predictions, yeah!

Hart goes for 185 and two touchdowns
Beanie goes for 115 and one touchdown
Boeckman goes 50%, two picks, and a lost fumble, plus two touchdowns
Manningham goes 7 for 147 and a score
Henne/Mallet throw for 230 yards and two touchdowns
UM does not turn the ball over
OSU does it four times
OSU is penalized for at least 80 yards
UM wins the special teams battle
Brown's back-breaking TD run will live long in UM lore

MICHIGAN 38 OHIO STATE 27

Caveat: LMD03 UM/OSU prediction record since 2003: 1-3