Barack Obama did not merely need to win the South Carolina Primary yesterday, he needed to win the news cycle as well. From the looks of this story he accomplished both tasks.
Some interesting nuggets from the exits...
Senator Obama won around 80% of the black vote which made up over 50% of the ~530,000 total. This was not unexpected. What perhaps might open some eyes is that he achieved roughly the same numbers with black women, the segment of the Democratic electorate most torn by the Clinton/Obama race. Clearly, John Edwards made a difference in the final result by nearly splitting the white vote with Mrs. Clinton.
As a supporter, I'm thrilled with this result and also that the great Caroline has finally made her decision.
Nonetheless, going forward, it is still hard to see how Barack Obama pulls off the upset without winning Florida, which has voted since September, and finishes Tuesday. Only 25% of the white vote remains deeply troubling for a general election matchup with a white man... and where African-Americans make up closer to 15% of the vote, not 55%. The shrewd and sexy Mrs. Clinton is surely hoping that her presumed victory in the as-of-now beauty contest further south will halt her competitor's momentum.
Likely. Yet 55-27 is a dominant total, the best seen thus far, in either party, in a contested state. Keep a close eye on the late-breaking Florida polls to see if a probable double-digit victory for HRC slips away to a near-deadlock. The challenger likely needs his future AG... err.. John Edwards to remain in the race if for no other reason than to siphon off critical white votes otherwise headed Senator Clinton's way.
The possibility of a brokered Democratic National Convention has increased substantially and now sits at about 35%.
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3 comments:
It's higher than 35%. If you do the math, it's drastically unlikely that either Obama or Clinton will reach 2025 delegates without Edwards playing king-maker. Not a single state for the Democrats is winner-take-all, so unless super Tuesday is full of the kind of ass-kickings that Obama pulled off last night, we'll be seeing a brokered convention and a VP nod for Edwards.
Rumors were flying last night saying that Edwards had already approached the Obama camp about such a potential deal. They told him to shove it for now, and I guess they can afford to.
I still think HRC will leave Super Tuesday with a significant lead and thus hold her superdelegate lead, crudely put, too many white people and hispanics live in those states for Obama to stay reasonably close.
I agree with the campaign's decision on Edwards, likely interested in part because of those robo-calls the Clinton campaign made in SC to keep him third. They cannot look as though they're subverting the will of the Democratic voter, especially when Teddy and possibly the Goreacle continue to bolster his establishment support.
He has to shift many, many superdelegates to do it, which means some key victories the week after next.
First Edwards has to find a way to keep his 10% support if he wants have a shot at maintaining any influence, I doubt that will be a simple task after SC.
Even if he does, I betb Obama, or more likely Hilary, winds up with just enough delegates to win outright. Very fair weather fans those delegates become when it comes to political patronage me thinks.
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