Ruminations on Rudy

Based on current projections, Hizzoner's historic gamble has failed and the man I presumed would receive the GOP's blessing is perhaps just hours from fading into permanent political obscurity. Some noted commentators have expressed great satisfaction at his downfall, and deep down perhaps feel some relief as well for one can logically conclude two Republicans more than any other threaten Democratic hegemony in 2009: John McCain and Rudy Giuliani. Others are at least mildly annoyed with his effort.

Thus our query, did America's Mayor blow it?

Somewhat, mostly due to spending enormous resources in Iowa and New Hampshire, when his team failed to realize the ephemeral support in two very conservative Republican contests. He would have been better off either going all in there, i.e. campaigning and thus getting news coverage, or saving all of his moolah for Florida. Yet, two things, neither of which he could control, likely sealed his fate.

1. Mad Mac roared back

One didn't have to read many political articles to note that Senator McCain and Mayor Giuliani were in effect fighting for the same voters, the national security wing of the Republican Party. As long as he stayed in the race, Mac was always going to be threat in New Hampshire--Romney outspent him 5:1 and still lost. Speaking of whom...

2. The Mittster won Michigan and Nevada

This is key because it left his big wallet in the race and eroded any edge Hizzoner may have had over McCain and Huckabee. Romney simply has more money and has recovered nicely from two fairly embarrassing defeats in Iowa and New Hampshire. Ironically, had The Tool won New Hampshire, Mad Mac's candidacy would've plummeted to Rudyesque levels and given Giuliani a real shot at upending Romney in Florida. Now, not so much. John McCain has seen a flood of former Thompson and Giuliani backers bolster his campaign.

Even had Giuliani fought hard for IA or NH and finished third in one or both, his unabashedly pro-choice chance would have galvanized the opposition, even if his comments on federal judges struck conservatives as kinder than Mad Mac's. I also think some of the mayor's lack of fire in recent days is attributable to him eyeing a vice presidential spot and running with McCain. In many ways, Rudy Giuliani is an ideal veep candidate, perhaps more so than Jeb Bush this cycle.

Rudy Giuliani's Florida strategy was flawed but not significantly so, in fact, he got a fair number of breaks, none bigger than Huckmentum in Iowa. Alas, no candidate wasted more money for fewer votes than America's Mayor, perhaps a trifle rusty from his first campaign since 2000 or even 1997. He did not seem to like the retail politics that Senator McCain embraced and people took note.

Now his New York delegation has all but left him, ditto his support in California. He could blame the recurring flare-ups from his tempestuous time as Gotham's chief, or lack of strong institutional support (a few more kind words from some GOP bigwigs may have made a difference), but I also believe his candidacy fell at about the same rate that people began to see Barack Obama as a viable contender to Hillary Clinton. Once HRC's thirty-to-forty-point national lead began to slip away, the rationale for a Rudy nomination, i.e. the toughest one to take on the Clintons (still true, at least in terms of counter-punch ability) became less relevant.

Egotistical as he appears, Hizzoner likely awaited a groundswell of 9/11-infused support that never came, in part because it has been nearly seven-and-a-half years and in part because the NIE on Iran in addition to the increased economic concerns took this election away from 2004 territory and closer to 1992.

Should either McCain or Romney pick him as veep? I would argue in the affirmative, because no one in the field is as ruthless as Rudy Giuliani and that bulldog mentality is exactly what the party would need against Hillary Clinton. It's a different story against Barack Obama, because Giuliani does not have the foreign affairs experience edge.