I was one of the 10,000 people crammed into Savage Hall on the campus of the University of Toledo yesterday afternoon as Barack Obama delivered a rather standard stump speech. But my, what a movement.
It is telling that all three contending presidential candidates came through Toledo this past week. They held rallies at three different places with varying crowd sizes, and as The Blade reported this morning, the amount of people that tried to get into the Obama rally was more than double what Clinton and McCain drew combined. They had to turn away 5,000 people after the arena had been filled yesterday -- even that's more than the 3,000 that Clinton attracted to the Whitmer High School gym the day before.
The reason Obama will become the presumptive nominee on March 4th is momentum. People just love the guy. He gets people who would otherwise be indifferent to the whole process to be excited about politics. We've heard all about his ability to win over younger voters, but at this rally yesterday (on a college campus no less) from the look of it I'd guess that fewer than 20% of the people there were under the age of 25. He truly is winning over every demographic. The polls still show him losing Ohio and Texas by slight margins, but I can't imagine he will lose either one.
McCain will be a joke in the general against an Obama ticket, despite the cautious warnings that my colleague LMD03 has been spouting off about McCain for a good two years now. He simply doesn't motivate the masses like Obama does, and it's not even close.
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I too was there, and having watched quite a few Obama stump speeches on the Tele it wasn't all that new to me, content-wise. I share Joe's belief that he will be the nominee, hell, he's up double digits nationally if the newest cbs poll can be believed, and there are also polls out this weekend that he has pulled ahead in texas, which is perhaps more worrisome news for the Clinton camp.
I do however share more of the caution that LMD exhibits than Joe does however. This will be a tough election, there will be nasty attacks and character assassination attempts, hell there already have been aplenty. It would be wise for all of us to not underestimate the pull that Senator McCain has. The only thing that could make this really interesting is if the FEC doesnt allow him to back out of the public finance scheme (which looks a real possibility at this point in time).
Response to Joe: Democratic voters historically take a greater role in the primary process than do Republicans, so however many people Senator Obama could cram into Savage Hall isn't particularly relevant.
Momentum? Yes, he has ten straight states, in part because the Clinton campaign failed to leave money for the contingency of a successful insurgent beyond Super Tuesday. Yes, people just love the guy, but look at Rasmussen, there is no evidence his appeal is crossing over at this time, plus, nearly eight months remain for his liberal record to come under intense fire.
Are we certain these people are excited about politics? That they'll vote in November, or just follow a movie-star/messiah figure? Attendance at a rally isn't evidence of winning additional demographics. TX is a crapshoot, but I think HRC can hold onto OH, if not then we move forward...
Obama, though, stands a greater chance of being "a joke" in the general than does Mad Mac. Motivating the masses? Who has won the White House in this manner in the modern era? Where have political records and beliefs such as Obama's ended up? Failing to win, time and time again. Oh, yes, you keep telling me this time is different, but if Obama's smugness and excessive narcissism continue, he is headed for a crash landing. He is largely playing a con game, and I'm complicit, supporting his efforts because he does retain the skills necessary to afford us a US Senate of 58-60 Democrats. I endorsed him because he had a more liberal record than Mrs. Clinton.
RCT: Obama's political calculus requires replacing every voter he is going to lose because of his skin color (not to mention those he will lose for his positions) with new voters. He will need to match Bill Clinton's 1992 performance with Republican voters, can he do it? The Supreme Court remains Senator McCain's ultimate bulwark, and the base certainly appreciates his vote on Bork and his attempted filibuster against Clinton in 1994. The two most vulnerable justices are the two most liberal voices on the bench, the next president may get one or two, worse if Justice Scalia retires and is replaced with someone twenty years younger.
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