Wednesday, February 6, 2008

Onward, O Ye Liberals!

Peruse these results, peruse them well, as we may never see anything like it again. The political class has long desired the respective parties to choose their standard-bearers on this night, once held in March (or later), Super Tuesday. In the end, astonishingly, the rival Democratic campaigns nearly split the enormous slate of delegates, and Mitt Romney, irrespective of his six victories, suffered the worst blow of the evening.

By region...

THE SOUTH: Backward, stubborn, and often wrong, nonetheless has produced three of the last five US Presidents.

AL: Obama +14, Huckabee +4
AR: Clinton +42, Huckabee +40 (home state influence)
GA: Obama +35, Huckabee +2
MO: Obama +1, McCain +1
TN: Clinton +13, Huckabee +3

Signficance: Barack Obama did very well in southern states, beginning to pick up the Edwards vote among white males; Romney failed to persuade conservative Republicans to keep his fledging candidacy alive. Worse, he finished behind both Mad Mac and the Huckster in too many states to brag of any momentum even if Ohio and Texas might set up well for him. HRC can feel good about winning the Volunteer State, if perhaps not for the right reasons (hint, hint). Yes, Huckabee won four southern states, but only one by a sizable margin

THE NORTHEAST: Mostly Clinton and McCain as expected, a surprise or two.

CT: Obama +4, McCain +19 (the surprise, though CT suits Obama's demographic)
DE: Obama +11, McCain +12
MA: Clinton +15, Romney +10 (once again, the Mittster underperformed)
NJ: Clinton +10, McCain +27
NY: Clinton +17, McCain +23

Senator McCain cordially thanks Rudy Giuliani's team for the winner-take-all states of CT, NJ, and NY. Whether Mad Mac can threaten this region in November is seriously doubtful, though.

THE MIDWEST/ROCKIES: Virtually all to the insurgent, can he win them in November?

CO: Obama +35, Romney +40
ID: Obama +63, N/A
IL: Obama +31, McCain +18
KS: Obama +48, N/A
MN: Obama +35, Romney +20
MT: N/A , Romney +16
ND: Obama +24, Romney +13
OK: Clinton +24, McCain +12
UT: Obama +24, Romney +85
WV: N/A , Huckabee +5 (essentially beat Romney in 1-on-1 contest)

Dominance by Obama in states never carried by Bill Clinton, relevance? One wonders if some good ole boys in OK refused to vote for a black man when John Edwards walked away.

THE SOUTHWEST/WEST: California remained Clinton Country

AK: Obama +49, Romney +22
CA: Clinton +12, McCain +10 (both needed it and both got it)
NM: Obama/Clinton draw, N/A

So, now what?

McCain: Severely wounded Robo-Rom with decisive victories in the New York media market, took all of those delegates, achieved key goals in Illinois and California. Now the unquestioned front-runner in the Republican race, merely must avoid trouncings from Romney in Ohio and Texas.

Clinton: Stymied Obama's big mo somewhat in California, but cannot like the overwhelming margins of her opponent in GOP-leaning country, nice wins in Tennessee and Oklahoma, however.

Obama: Postponed (indefinitely?) the Clinton victory party with an impressive coast-to-coast reach, despite coming up short in some key states. Will his numbers continue to move in the next month?

Romney: It's all over but the shouting. Knowledgeable southern voters had a chance to firmly reject McCain for the ex-Governor, but, clearly, they do not trust him, choosing instead to keep Huckabee on the ballot for a few more weeks. If OH and TX were winner-take-all states, Romney could breathe a bit easier. They're not and he should not be.

Huckabee: Can the totals of Romney and Huck prevent a Mad Mac coronation? I don't believe so.

Stark reality from of all places the Old Cranky Lady:

"Polls of Democratic voters on Tuesday made it clear that the politics of identity — race, gender, class — was driving the contest between Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton."

Yep. The Clinton coalition of 1992 and 1996 has split, exactly how one candidate would break away--my guess is Mrs. Clinton gets a bump from white men and raises her black-vote totals, later--is anyone's guess.

Bullets...

Disagree.

Judis over Yglesias, I've mentioned this before.

May it last all the way to November.

Yep.

0 comments: