The Road to a Blue State America

In one week, we will know if Illinois senator Barack Obama's performance in Ohio and Texas will have done enough to effectively end the Democratic race. Barring a last-minute calamity (and rule change), the Republicans are just waiting for Mad Mac to run out the clock on the increasingly delusional Huckster (not delusion for staying in the race, delusion for somehow believing the GOP would choose him in the unlikely event of a deadlock. For the purposes of this exercise, we will assume the race is Obama v. McCain and that you are the Democrat standard-bearer's chief political strategist, what are your recommendations?

To: Barack Obama, cc. David Axelrod
From: LMD03
Subj: Autumn Memo

Electoral notes:

1) Hubris, maybe, but adopt the Al Gore 2000 strategy... for California. Ignore it. In effect, dare the Republican nominee to expend valuable resources in a state locked away in the "D" column since 1992. Additionally, in this day and age, elections are inherently national, i.e., if CA goes red it's going to prove a long night for the blue team. Yes, Arnold is there and he will help, nonetheless, we have to treat it as the GOP views Texas until proven otherwise...

2) Run a tight budget in the Southwest, Arizona despite its popular Democratic governor is not going to vote against a native son. Colorado may tempt you, but that's also rough sledding, if you're to spend anyway significantly, I recommend New Mexico, won by Al Gore in 2000 (barely). Conceding Nevada is a tough chore, given its growth, but Senator McCain will likely outperform President Bush there...

3) Hit Florida and hit it hard. Yes, the president significantly increased his percentage in 2004, but this state recreates itself every five years or so. As we already mentioned, given Mad Mac's (and his 2000 primary rival, had Vice President Gore won New Hampshire, Florida is a footnote) successes in the Nutmeg state, just winning Ohio may not do it. This is worth a lot of money, a flip here could devastate the GOP math...

4) Ignore New York and New Jersey, as Rudy Giuliani has bid us adieu, we can breath a bit easier here. Sure, President Bush got a 9/11 bounce, but closer margins didn't yield a single electoral vote, and ignore Illinois while you're at it, which, incidentally, Mrs. Clinton wouldn't have proven able to do...

5) On offense, the first state is Ohio, the second is Florida, and the third is Virginia. Even though no Democrat has won it since 1964, unlike the somewhat-promising terrain of Georgia (and to a lesser extent, Arkansas), it is worth the money. The emigration of DCers across the Potomac has put this state in play, the problem is that Mad Mac's ties to retired vets make this state a bit harder than had any other Republican earned the nomination...

6) There is no getting around it: Pennsylvania could doom your effort. Yes, Governor Rendell is popular and yes Philly is a reliable stronghold, but, in my judgment, this is the ONE state you cannot lose...

7) The paradox of this election is that while Dems have seemingly innumerable factors in their favor, especially the prospects for the 2009 Senate, we must defend MANY states in the presidential race, even one as off-the-radar as Maine. I already referenced Pennsylvania (assuming CA, NY, and NJ hold), but even Wisconsin and Minnesota aren't gimmes...

8) November 4 may prove me wrong, but absent a landslide of historic proportions, you needn't worry about Tennessee Kentucky, West Virginia (yes, all Clinton '96 states, so what?), maybe not even Missouri, too many good ole boys, some of whom are Dems that voted for Senator Clinton (TN). Expect the South to go against you hard...

9) As of 26 FEB, here is how I see the math: We take back Iowa and Ohio, give up New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, and likely need either Virginia or Florida to rest easy on Election Night. You never like to react to your opponent, but if the McCain camp goes heavy in WI, MN, or MI, we've got to follow...

10) The arithmetic is not kind at the moment, is there anything we can do to change the landscape. Yes. We have to sell John McCain as a George W. Bush/Bob Dole Republican. We will cover how to do this in a subsequent memo...