Mad Mac Deigns to Defy Political Gravity

A glimmer of hope for Republicans?

Despite significant wind in his face, Senator McCain continues to remain within striking distance of the likely Democratic nominee.

Meanwhile, the GOP stands poised to lose perhaps five more Senate seats and another dozen House seats due to retiring members and the collapse of the Republican Party brand, and may yet descend into civil war on whether to continue to back President Bush on the Iraq occupation. Conservatism, broadly popular for nearly thirty years, has fallen out of favor, though it remains wise not to speak of its demise.

The trends clearly favor the Democratic Party, but it is a fair question to wonder if the Republicans can eke out another victory before the true start of a Democratic era. The electoral college may stand on the precipice of shifting to a thirty-five state majority for Democrats--to include Virginia and some of the Southwest--yet it may just take another four years.

Make no mistake: John McCain can win this race even if we were to take office with bolstered Democratic majorities opposing him. In fact, open election precedent says he will win unless Mr. Obama can destroy the model by fostering massive voter turnout (youths nationally and blacks in the south) due to his unique candidacy.

In order to win, Senator Obama has to hold down Senator McCain's margins among white voters. Unfortunately, Quinnipiac polling has shown him trailing by 14-18 points among whites in the crucial states of Florida and Ohio. That is danger territory, but I still believe he retains an edge in the Buckeye State, irrespective of whether he adds Governor Ted Strickland or Senator Sherrod Brown to the ticket.

UPDATED OESY0208 FORECAST:

BUSH STATES TO SWITCH TO OBAMA: Iowa (2004) and Ohio
KERRY STATES TO SWITCH TO MCCAIN: New Hampshire (won by Bush in 2000)

Advantage, Obama. Still, we are looking at a third consecutive nail-biter, especially if Mad Mac flips Pennsylvania as he could very well do.

Will the Obama campaign's likely strategy of using their prodigious fundraising machine to spread out its opponent work to perfection? Virginia, Florida, Colorado, and Missouri are all "can't lose" statements for John McCain, and all would prove excellent settings to force Mad Mac to use his less-than-stellar amount of cash... so he can't use as much of it in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest.