Yes, Ohio hurt in 2004, nonetheless...

Huh?

"Barack Obama's campaign envisions a path to the presidency that could include Virginia, Georgia and several Rocky Mountain states, but not necessarily the pair of battlegrounds that decided the last two elections – Florida and Ohio."

Look, it is smart to have to contingency plans, but I find this talk a little troubling. Namely, I fail to see how the Obama campaign thinks that winning Georgia is possible (last Dem win: 1992) or, worse, how Georgia would somehow turn "blue" yet NOT Florida. While it is true that Bill Clinton accomplished that very feat sixteen years ago, his victory in Georgia likely owed much to an anachronistic environment, i.e., conservative Democratic dominance of the South. Barack Obama offers a more liberal candidacy, and although his racial background might lead greater Atlanta to turn out in record numbers... President Bush won this state by seventeen points and Rasmussen has Mad Mac up ten.

Ohio, unlike Florida, is a must-win for Democrats, even if the culture isn't as antagonistic toward Republicans as in 2006, this state is clearly there for the taking. Few other states would respond as well to Senator Obama's anti-NAFTA (at least in rhetoric) platform. Furthermore, while ultimately I don't believe Pennsylvania will switch sides, it remains a (Times word) disturbing possibility.

Virginia is very interesting, but John McCain's military experience will likely keep a future "purple" state from turning "blue" at least for an additional four years.

The campaign also urges a focus on the Southwest:

"Plouffe also has been touting Obama's appeal in once Republican-leaning states where Democrats have made gains in recent gubernatorial and congressional races, such as Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Montana, Alaska and North Dakota."

Fact is that Senator McCain is uniquely positioned to hold all of those states, due to his southwestern background, even if Colorado and Nevada in particular look very tempting. I think the Democratic nominee will win New Mexico. As to why Alaska and North Dakota are listed, well, only a 1964-like landslide would render them pick-ups.

Still, I like the aggression which manifests itself in forays to Virginia and Colorado. Senator Obama has the money (for now) to do that. But he has to watch his Midwest flank, or the coterie of states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, and long-shot Minnesota) that will almost assuredly tell the tale on the Fourth.

Expanded maps are wonderful, but Candidate Obama cedes only Indiana to Mad Mac in the Midwest/Mid-Atlantic then he wins the race, period. The campaign's implict worry that a split of that region is possible is (Times word) worrisome.